Growth Areas Shape the Federal Election - But Not How You Think

The 2025 Federal Election delivered major gains for Labor in Australia’s growth areas, but the full story reveals a more complex and instructive political landscape. While outer suburban communities played a critical role in shaping the election conversation, it was the middle-ring suburbs that ultimately proved decisive.

Bronwen Clark, CEO of the National Growth Areas Alliance (NGAA), said the results highlighted both the rising influence of growth areas and the risks of treating cities as a single political bloc.

‘The election confirmed what NGAA has long said - that inner, middle, and outer metro areas are fundamentally different, with unique needs, pressures, and political expectations,’ Ms. Clark said.

 Key Observations

• Labor gained key seats in growth areas, particularly in Queensland

Growth areas electorates such as Dickson, Petrie and Longman (covering parts of Moreton Bay City Council), Forde (parts of Logan City Council) shifted from Liberal to Labor, reflecting frustration over service gaps, infrastructure deficits, and cost-of-living pressures. In Sydney’s southwest, Labor took Hughes (covering parts if Campbelltown City Council and Liverpool City Council) and in Perth’s north, Labor took Moore (parts of City of Wanneroo) after incumbent Liberal Ian Goodenough did not win preselection.

• Swings supporting Labor
  Significant swings towards in traditionally safe Liberal seats signal underlying voter dissatisfaction and a demand for real change. Safe Labor seats also increased their margins, some by significant amounts
• Not all momentum was one-sided
  Four Labor-held growth area seats recorded small swings toward the Liberals - a sign that no party can take these communities for granted.
• The myth of ‘urban vs rural’ no longer holds
  As political experts have observed, Australia’s cities are not homogenous. Distinctions between inner, middle, and outer suburbs are sharpening, and political parties must recalibrate their strategies accordingly.
• Generational, migration and demographic shifts are changing the game
  Growth areas are becoming younger, more multicultural, and more climate-conscious. By the next election, even larger proportions of first-home buyers, students, skilled migrants and young families will call these communities home - and they will demand inclusive, future-focused leadership.
• Local perspectives matter
  Both major parties have more to do to earn the trust of growth area residents. This election confirmed that imposed policy assumptions fall flat. Meaningful progress will only come through real engagement with local communities and their representatives.

‍Looking Ahead

With a strengthened mandate, the Albanese Government now has the opportunity, and responsibility, to accelerate housing and infrastructure reform.

The NGAA will be strongly advocating for the Government to:

• Re-establish place-based funding programs like Thriving Suburbs and the Housing Support Program.
• Partner with local government to design policies that reflect the lived realities of growth area communities.
• Recognise growth areas as distinct regions in national planning and investment frameworks

Mayor Terresa Lynes, interim Chair of the NGAA, said ‘Now more than ever, local government needs to be at the table to help shape the policies that affect us, because the best outcomes happen when all levels of government work together to deliver the infrastructure and services our residents need.

‘Growth areas helped shape this election - and they’re ready to shape Australia’s future. The momentum is here. Now is the time to act.’